Elvis Costello – "Less Than Zero" (1977)

Let’s talk about the future now

We’ve put the past away

An over/under bet is a wager on whether a certain number is exceeded or not exceeded by the end of a sporting event.

The most common over/under bet is on the total number of points scored in a game.  For example, the over/under on the final score of the Kansas City Chiefs–Cleveland Browns playoff game this year was 57.  

The Chiefs won 22-17, so there were a total of 39 points scored in that game – that’s less than 57, so if you’d bet the under instead of taking the over you would have won.

Here’s one more example.  The Green Bay Packers–Los Angeles Rams final was 32-18.  The over/under for that game was 45.  Since the two teams combined for 50 points – which is more than the 45 over/under number – those who bet the over won.

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I don’t think any of the online betting sites was offering an over/under bet on how many people will get arrested at the Biden inauguration today – or how many of those people will eventually be convicted.

To come up with a reasonable betting line, I took a look back at the news coverage of Trump’s 2016 inauguration, when 234 people were arrested for smashing store windows, throwing rocks and bricks at police officers, and other crimes.

How many of those people were eventually convicted?  Zero.

The first six defendants who went on trial were all acquitted by the Washington, DC juries who heard their cases.  After going oh-for-six, the U.S. Attorney apparently threw up his hands and dropped the charges against everyone else.

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Part of the reason for the prosecutors’ lack of success in the 2017 cases was the use of “black bloc” tactics by the rioters, who wore black clothing, ski masks, scarves, sunglasses, motorcycle helmets, or other face-concealing and face-protecting items to conceal their identities and hinder criminal prosecution:

From a 2017 article in the Washington Post:

They’ve been around for decades, but in the past three months they’ve been especially visible: protesters in head-to-toe black clothing and ski masks, charging through the streets in public demonstrations, provoking police and leaving a trail of broken windows and flaming piles of debris in their wake.

Pockets of them sowed chaos during peaceful protests in Portland the week Donald Trump was elected president, smashing electrical boxes and spray-painting buildings, and prompting a volley of rubber bullets from authorities.

They turned out by the hundreds at Trump’s inauguration in January, vandalizing [buildings] and torching a limousine in downtown Washington.

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Here’s more on the 2017 inauguration from an article that appeared on a local National Public Radio affiliate’s website:

As the District careens toward Donald Trump’s inauguration, a group of local activists is doing everything in its power to make sure that the day’s events are besieged with bedlam.

“The number of counter protesters showing up is off the charts,” says Legba Carrefour, a participant with the D.C. Counter-Inaugural Committee. “We want to undermine the legitimacy of the incoming administration by ruining the inauguration.”

It is one of around a dozen groups that plan to express their deep displeasure with the results of the election. . . .

Throughout the day, hundreds or thousands of protesters plan to paralyze morning traffic into the city, create blockades at checkpoints, march without permits, and possibly disrupt the [inaugural] parade. . . .

“We’re talking about no peaceful transition,” Carrefour says. On President Barack Obama’s call for a calm, successful transition, he adds: “We really reject that.”

As the French say, “Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose.”

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How about we just go with the 2017 figures and make 234 and zero the over/under for the number of arrests today and the number of convictions that result from those arrests, respectively?  

If I were a betting man, I’m not sure whether I’d go over or under for the number of arrests.  

As you may have heard, there’s an unprecedented level of security in DC today – for one thing, there are roughly 25,000 National Guard troops in town.  

So I’m guessing that there will be either a lot more arrests today than in 2016, or a lot fewer – but I have no idea which.  Therefore, I’m passing on that bet.

But I’ll happily take the over on the number of convictions for two reasons:

First, I doubt that DC juries will take it easy on any Trump diehards who get arrested today.  

But more importantly, how in the hell can you take the under when the over/under number is zero?  (I’ve forgotten 99% of what I learned in math class, but I’m pretty sure there’s no number that’s less than zero.)

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Elvis Costello’s record company wanted him to play his latest UK single, “Less Than Zero,” when he appeared on Saturday Night Live for the first time in 1977.  

Elvis Costello on SNL in 1977

But Costello was afraid that the song’s references to British fascist politician Oswald Mosley would go right over the heads of Americans.  So after playing a few bars of “Less Than Zero,” Costello and the Attractions suddenly stopped and jumped into “Radio, Radio” instead.

Click here to listen to “Less Than Zero.”

Click below to buy the record from Amazon: